Document post-ship scan_attempts telemetry and close Phase 1–2 convoys.

Record Aug 15 measurement showing Phases 1–2 missed success targets, Phase 3 code is live with 15% embedding backfill and zero L0 traffic yet.

Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com>

.convoys/improve-scan-card-detection.md

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ skip:
   - ia
   - ui-design
   - flag
-status: in-progress
+status: shipped
 created: 2026-08-14
 depends_on:
   - tighten-scan-identify-hot-path
@@ -108,8 +108,20 @@ either model.
 - [x] Brief 1 — detect + warp library + tests
 - [x] Brief 2 — wire `use-camera-scanner.js` + crop used by
       `identifyTrackedCardCapture`
-- [ ] Confirm `scanner-mobile-checkout` overlay still maps bounds
+- [x] Confirm `scanner-mobile-checkout` overlay still maps bounds
-- [ ] Re-measure L2 `not_a_card` share
+- [x] Re-measure L2 `not_a_card` share (2026-08-15 — 43.9% all-time; 38.9% on Aug 15 n=26)
+
+## Post-ship (PR #158, 2026-08-14)
+
+**Shipped:** perspective warp + `scanner-card-warp.js`; warped JPEG feeds OCR
+and vision paths.
+
+**Telemetry:** L2 `not_a_card` 43.9% all-time vs 44.6% baseline — flat.
+Aug 15 burst (n=26) showed 38.9% (directional improvement only). L1 OCR
+quality regressed (shorter garbage strips).
+
+**Verdict:** Better crops shipped; Gemini still sees bad frames often.
+Combined with Phase 3 backfill for printing-accurate matches.
 
 ## Likely file ownership
 

.convoys/scan-visual-catalog-search.md

@@ -111,29 +111,46 @@ unknown-card fallback.
 - [x] Brief 1 — migration + SCHEMA_MAP
 - [x] Brief 2 — catalog backfill job (idempotent)
 - [x] Brief 3 — identify kNN route + client escalate order
-- [ ] Threshold bake-off on real crops
+- [x] Threshold bake-off on real crops (initial: 0.82 match / 0.58 disambig — tune post-backfill)
-- [ ] Re-measure auto-match % excluding `not_a_card`
+- [ ] Re-measure auto-match % excluding `not_a_card` (blocked: L0 traffic + backfill)
-- [ ] Operator: `AI_GATEWAY_API_KEY` + `npm run backfill-embeddings` on Neon (migrate applied 2026-08-15)
+- [ ] Operator: finish `npm run backfill-embeddings` — **14.9%** (9,865 / 66,211) as of 2026-08-15
 
 ## Post-ship (2026-08-15)
 
-**CI fixes:** PR #162 — `lib/card-embed.js` allowlist + pgvector migration
+**Merged:** PR #160 (Layer-0 visual catalog search), PR #162 (CI gates).
-graceful skip on non-superuser homelab CI.
 
-**Neon operator:** `1782000000001_add-card-embeddings` applied manually
+**Pipeline roles (kickoff complete):**
-(pgvector + columns + index + pgmigrations row). Full backfill pending
-`AI_GATEWAY_API_KEY` in operator env.
 
-**scan_attempts snapshot** (90d, n=250, pre-backfill / no L0 traffic yet):
+| Role | Outcome |
+| --- | --- |
+| Conductor | Convoy ratified; skip ia/ui-design/visual/a11y/design/flag |
+| UX reviewer | No new screens; L0→L1→L2 order; silent escalate when index empty |
+| Architect | D1–D4 decisions + 3 briefs (`.convoys/scan-visual-catalog-search/brief-*`) |
+| Implementer | Briefs 1–3 shipped in #160 |
+| Reviewer + security-auditor | #160 audit fan-out; #162 CI fix |
+| Doc-writer | SCHEMA_MAP layer 0 documented |
+
+**CI fixes (#162):** `lib/card-embed.js` allowlist + pgvector migration graceful
+skip on non-superuser homelab CI.
+
+**Neon:** pgvector v0.8.0; `cards.embedding vector(1024)` + HNSW index applied.
+Backfill **in progress** (9,865 / 66,211 = 14.9%). **0** `scan_attempts` with
+`layer = 0` yet — L0 path live but index too sparse / no post-#160 scans logged.
+
+**scan_attempts snapshot** (all-time n=250):
 
 | Signal | Value | Baseline |
 | --- | --- | --- |
 | L1 escalate | 78.4% (87/111) | 76.7% |
 | L1 matched | 5.4% (6/111) | 5.8% |
 | L2 not_a_card | 43.9% (61/139) | 44.6% |
-| End-to-end auto-match | 10.0% (25/250) | 10.3% |
+| End-to-end auto-match | 13.2% excl. not_a_card | 13.5% |
+| L0 attempts | 0 | — |
 
-Re-measure after backfill + preview scanning for L0 `layer=0` rows.
+**Aug 15 session (n=26):** See umbrella `.convoys/scanner-identify-upgrade.md`
+§ Post-ship telemetry.
+
+Re-measure after backfill completes and preview scanning generates L0 rows.
 
 ## Likely file ownership
 

.convoys/scanner-identify-upgrade.md

@@ -170,10 +170,67 @@ on all three (no new routes or visual language).
 - [x] Open worktree `scanner-identify-upgrade` from `main`
 - [x] Seed sub-convoys #1–#3
 - [x] Architect: pick up `tighten-scan-identify-hot-path` first
-- [ ] Re-measure `scan_attempts` after all phases ship (post-backfill)
+- [x] Re-measure `scan_attempts` after all phases ship (2026-08-15 — see below)
 - [x] Architect: `improve-scan-card-detection`
 - [x] Architect: `scan-visual-catalog-search` after warped crops exist
-- [ ] Operator: merge #162 CI fix, `npm run migrate up`, `npm run backfill-embeddings`
+- [ ] Operator: finish embedding backfill (`npm run backfill-embeddings`) — **14.9%** done (9,865 / 66,211)
+- [ ] Re-measure after backfill + L0 traffic (`layer = 0` rows)
+
+## Post-ship telemetry (2026-08-15)
+
+Pulled from Neon `scan_attempts` + `cards.embedding` coverage. Single user
+(`user_id = 3`); treat post-ship windows as directional, not statistically
+significant.
+
+### All-time (n=250, 2026-05-27 → 2026-08-15)
+
+| Signal | Value | Baseline (2026-08-14) | Target |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| L1 auto-match | **5.4%** of L1 (6/111) | 5.8% | ≥25% |
+| L1 escalate | **78.4%** of L1 (87/111) | 76.7% | ≤40% |
+| L2 `not_a_card` | **43.9%** of L2 (61/139) | 44.6% | ≤15% |
+| End-to-end auto-match | **13.2%** excl. not_a_card (25/189) | 13.5% | ≥50% |
+| L1 p50 latency | **158 ms** | 158 ms | — |
+| L2 p50 / p90 | **1642 / 2297 ms** | 1655 / 2349 ms | ≤1800 p50 |
+| L0 attempts | **0** | — | (Phase 3 code live; index sparse) |
+| `card_submissions` pending | **31** | 27 | ops |
+
+### Aug 15 post-deploy session (n=26)
+
+First scan burst after #156–#158 merged (~06:23–07:43 UTC). No L0 rows yet
+(#160 landed same evening; backfill incomplete).
+
+| Signal | Aug 15 (n=26) | Baseline |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| L1 auto-match | **0%** (0/8 L1) | 5.8% |
+| L1 escalate | **100%** (8/8 L1) | 76.7% |
+| L2 `not_a_card` | **38.9%** (7/18 L2) | 44.6% |
+| End-to-end auto-match | **10.5%** excl. not_a_card (2/19) | 13.5% |
+
+**Qualitative notes:** L1 OCR strips post-warp are *shorter* garbage (`"7"`,
+`"Tey"`, `"yr'"`) — collector-number path cannot help. L2 structured JSON
+(`isCard: false`) works. Two L2 auto-matches (Hunger Hawk, Hog-Monkey).
+Disambiguation still common (Seel printings).
+
+### Phase verdict
+
+| Phase | PR | Code | Success metrics |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| 1 `tighten-scan-identify-hot-path` | #156 | **Shipped** | ❌ L1 match/escalate targets missed |
+| 2 `improve-scan-card-detection` | #158 | **Shipped** | ❌ not_a_card still ~44%; slight Aug 15 improvement |
+| 3 `scan-visual-catalog-search` | #160, #162 | **Shipped** | ⏳ Awaiting backfill + L0 traffic |
+
+**Recommendation:** Finish catalog embedding backfill, scan 50+ cards on
+preview, then re-query `layer = 0` distribution before tuning thresholds.
+
+### Embedding backfill status (2026-08-15)
+
+| Metric | Value |
+| --- | --- |
+| Cards with `image_url` | 66,211 |
+| Rows with `embedding` | 9,865 (**14.9%**) |
+| pgvector on Neon | ✅ v0.8.0 |
+| Operator command | `npm run backfill-embeddings` |
 
 ## Worktree
 

.convoys/tighten-scan-identify-hot-path.md

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ skip:
   - ui-design
   - visual
   - flag
-status: in-progress
+status: shipped
 created: 2026-08-14
 depends_on:
   - add-real-ocr-layer
@@ -115,7 +115,19 @@ is never read on L1.
 - [x] Brief C — `scan-vision.js` JSON schema + optional model id
 - [x] Brief D — skip automatic disambiguation Gemini refine
 - [x] SCHEMA_MAP layer-1 wording
-- [ ] Re-query `scan_attempts` after preview traffic
+- [x] Re-query `scan_attempts` after preview traffic (2026-08-15 — metrics unvalidated; see umbrella § Post-ship telemetry)
+
+## Post-ship (PR #156, 2026-08-14)
+
+**Shipped:** faster verify gates, collector-number L1, structured Gemini JSON,
+skip L1 disambiguation refine.
+
+**Telemetry (n=250 all-time):** L1 matched 5.4% (target ≥25%); L1 escalate
+78.4% (target ≤40%). Gate latency goal met (~158 ms L1 p50). Aug 15 session
+(n=26) showed 0% L1 match — OCR strips got noisier post-warp, not better.
+
+**Verdict:** Machinery shipped; L1 text path remains insufficient for the
+umbrella 50% auto-match goal. Phase 3 visual kNN is the intended fix.
 
 ## Likely file ownership (Architect will lock)